By James Gutman - February 3, 2012

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CMS might have done some creative thinking for its presentation of the Medicare Advantage 2012 Annual Election Period (AEP) results on Feb. 1. Back on Sept. 15, 2011, the agency had forecast, based on information it said was obtained from MA sponsors, that MA plan enrollment would climb 10% for 2012 from the 2011 level, a figure higher than predictions of industry analysts. But the AEP got off to a slow start, partly because of the new earlier time frame compared with in prior years, and even a late surge seemed unlikely to bring that 10% hike.

The agency said on Feb. 1, though, that the increase has indeed been 10%. That puzzled this editor, whose trusty calculator indicated the rise shown in CMS figures from 12,165,597 MA enrollees as of the Dec. 1, 2011, payment to 12,585,277 for the Jan. 1, 2012, payment was only 3.4%. Even using the 12,844,304 for the Feb. 1, 2012, payment, for which CMS released data much earlier than usual, the rise was — while substantial — just 5.6% from the December level.

So that prompted a question to CMS on how it came up with the 10%, and the response perhaps is illuminating. When the Feb. 1, 2012, figure is compared with the 11,727,890 figure for Feb. 1, 2011, the rise is 10%, a CMS spokesperson explains. I took out my trusty calculator, did the math, and sure enough the figure was 9.51%, which rounds up to 10%. Is it possible that CMS rushed out the February figures, which show gains resulting from the hefty Medicare age-in population that's expected to help MA plans all year, to meet the 10% projection? Perhaps only a cynic would ask such a question, but there are plenty of cynics in Washington in an election year.